22. September 2004 · Comments Off on What Price Oil? · Categories: General

On Fox’s Your World w/Neil Cavuto, today, I’ve just watched one of the most interesting meetings of talking heads in some time. This was triggered by an assertion by Stephan Leeb, of Leeb Capital Management, that the price of oil could go up to “$150-250/bl. or more” over the next 5 to 6 years. But, that price rise would not adversely effect the world economy, so long as there wasn’t a sudden spike.

This price rise, Leeb said, was inevitable, due to the increasing demand of India and China. I have stated this previously (old MT blog). I would further concur with Leeb’s analysis, with the following qualifications: Too fast a rise in oil prices (not necessarily a ‘spike’) could set off an inflationary spiral. And that, should oil move much beyond it’s current $48/bl., alternative sources, such as sand and shale, as well as synfuels, will begin to come online. This, however, will not happen fast enough to fully stem the price rise in conventional crude, but will certainly cap the total price rise over a 5-6 year time frame.

Update: For those seriously concerned about oil prices, this graph might be of interest.

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